{"id":368,"slug":"will-ww3-happen-before-gta6","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/will-ww3-happen-before-gta6","q":"Will WW3 happen before GTA6?","cat":"world","catName":"World","emoji":"🌍","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0301,"ref":0.02},{"name":"No","p":0.9699,"ref":0.98}],"chance":0.0301,"change24":0,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/EnricoCaminiti/will-ww3-happen-before-gta6","ref":0.02,"refSrc":"Manifold","b":2678,"state":[-9380.643832,-81.877093],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791239845,"closes":1795042800,"closesText":"Nov 18, 6 PM ET · World Day 1,895","closesWorldDay":1895,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"Do you think the third World War will occur before the much-anticipated release of Grand Theft Auto 6? Share your thoughts and predictions in this poll.\n\nThe prediction resolves to yes if war is declared between 2 or more of the super powers before GTA 6's release.\n\nEdit: declaration may be implicit - 03/07/2024\nEdit: human troops are not a must to meet requirements to this question's criteria - 30/01/2025\nEdit: length of conflict is also not a must to meet requirements - 30/01/2025\n\nEdit: fixed a weird comment by the AI summary, sorry for the confusion it may have caused. - 05/04/2025\nEdit: small clarification that if GTA is delayed, this question would follow - 05/04/2025\nEdit: GTA has been delayed to May 2026, thus this question will follow (https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjew84ev3yyo) - 03/05/2025\nEdit: GTA has been delayed again to November 2026 (https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwypgvd9j8qo) - 12/11/2025\n\nUpdate 2025-01-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Development of Fully Mechanized Armies: The emergence of fully mechanized military forces (e.g., AI-driven drones, autonomous weapons systems) could enable a new form of direct conflict. In such a scenario, nations might be able to shield their populations in bunkers while launching large-scale, all-out attacks on their adversaries.\n\nDiplomatic Misunderstandings Leading to Small-Scale Conflicts: A breakdown in diplomacy could spark numerous localized conflicts around the world. If these conflicts become widespread enough, they could collectively be considered a \"world at war,\" even if individually they are short-lived (likely lasting no more than a few weeks).\n\nUpdate 2025-02-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Fully Mechanized Armies Clarification:\n\nThe mere development of fully mechanized mili\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 6:37 PM ET · World Day 839","resolves":1795302000,"resolvesText":"Nov 21, 6 PM ET · World Day 1,967","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791239820,"p":[0.0301,0.9699],"r":[0.0301,0.9699]},{"at":1791253260,"p":[0.0301,0.9699],"r":[0.0301,0.9699]},{"at":1791264060,"p":[0.0301,0.9699],"r":[0.0301,0.9699]},{"at":1791274860,"p":[0.0301,0.9699],"r":[0.0301,0.9699]},{"at":1791285660,"p":[0.0301,0.9699],"r":[0.0301,0.9699]},{"at":1791296460,"p":[0.0301,0.9699],"r":[0.0301,0.9699]},{"at":1791307260,"p":[0.0301,0.9699],"r":[0.0301,0.9699]},{"at":1791318060,"p":[0.0301,0.9699],"r":[0.03,0.97]},{"at":1791328860,"p":[0.0301,0.9699],"r":[0.03,0.97]},{"at":1791339660,"p":[0.0301,0.9699],"r":[0.03,0.97]},{"at":1791341100,"p":[0.0301,0.9699],"r":[0.02,0.98]},{"at":1791354060,"p":[0.0301,0.9699],"r":[0.02,0.98]},{"at":1791364860,"p":[0.0301,0.9699],"r":[0.02,0.98]},{"at":1791375660,"p":[0.0301,0.9699],"r":[0.02,0.98]},{"at":1791386460,"p":[0.0301,0.9699],"r":[0.02,0.98]},{"at":1791397260,"p":[0.0301,0.9699],"r":[0.02,0.98]},{"at":1791408076,"p":[0.0301,0.9699],"r":[0.02,0.98]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":3.01,"bestBid":3,"bestAsk":4,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":4,"shares":788,"people":0,"house":788,"total":31.52},{"price":5,"shares":626,"people":0,"house":626,"total":62.82},{"price":6,"shares":516,"people":0,"house":516,"total":93.78},{"price":7,"shares":442,"people":0,"house":442,"total":124.72},{"price":8,"shares":386,"people":0,"house":386,"total":155.6},{"price":9,"shares":345,"people":0,"house":345,"total":186.65}],"bids":[{"price":3,"shares":10,"people":0,"house":10,"total":0.3},{"price":2,"shares":1114,"people":0,"house":1114,"total":22.58},{"price":1,"shares":1883,"people":0,"house":1883,"total":41.41}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":96.99,"bestBid":96,"bestAsk":97,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":97,"shares":10,"people":0,"house":10,"total":9.7},{"price":98,"shares":1114,"people":0,"house":1114,"total":1101.42},{"price":99,"shares":1883,"people":0,"house":1883,"total":2965.59}],"bids":[{"price":96,"shares":788,"people":0,"house":788,"total":756.48},{"price":95,"shares":626,"people":0,"house":626,"total":1351.18},{"price":94,"shares":516,"people":0,"house":516,"total":1836.22},{"price":93,"shares":442,"people":0,"house":442,"total":2247.28},{"price":92,"shares":386,"people":0,"house":386,"total":2602.4},{"price":91,"shares":345,"people":0,"house":345,"total":2916.35}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":106,"slug":"us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-december-31-2026","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-december-31-2026","q":"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?","cat":"world","catName":"World","emoji":"🌍","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.2153,"ref":0.135},{"name":"No","p":0.7847,"ref":0.865}],"chance":0.2153,"change24":0.0134,"change7d":null,"vol":8494,"trades":195,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-20260621201254412/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-december-31-2026-191","ref":0.135,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":4794,"state":[829.157249,7029.850504],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":95,"slug":"us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-october-31-2026","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-october-31-2026","q":"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?","cat":"world","catName":"World","emoji":"🌍","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0965,"ref":0.0275},{"name":"No","p":0.9035,"ref":0.9725}],"chance":0.0965,"change24":-0.0044,"change7d":null,"vol":8268,"trades":192,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-20260621201254412/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-october-31-2026","ref":0.0275,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":3794,"state":[-1132.639617,7355.252394],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1793505540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,468","closesWorldDay":1468,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":21,"slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-31","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-31","q":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?","cat":"world","catName":"World","emoji":"🌍","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.7751,"ref":0.835},{"name":"No","p":0.2249,"ref":0.165}],"chance":0.7751,"change24":0,"change7d":null,"vol":551,"trades":21,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963","ref":0.835,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":4181,"state":[-538.93278,-5712.366795],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793478540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 4:29 PM ET · World Day 1,461","closesWorldDay":1461,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1863,"slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-15","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-15","q":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 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30?","cat":"world","catName":"World","emoji":"🌍","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.605,"ref":0.63},{"name":"No","p":0.395,"ref":0.37}],"chance":0.605,"change24":0,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-30","ref":0.63,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":3541,"state":[-1779.447473,-3289.126949],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791316602,"closes":1796070540,"closesText":"Nov 30, 3:29 PM ET · World Day 2,181","closesWorldDay":2181,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}