{"id":1106,"slug":"will-the-s-and-p500-be-greater-than-8000-in-2026","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/will-the-s-and-p500-be-greater-than-8000-in-2026","q":"Will the S&P500 be greater than $8000 in 2026?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":["stocks"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.7249,"ref":0.6373},{"name":"No","p":0.2751,"ref":0.3627}],"chance":0.7249,"change24":0,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/KrishPatel/will-the-sp500-be-greater-than-8000","ref":0.6373,"refSrc":"Manifold","b":1176,"state":[-378.269411,-1517.967882],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791296502,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"Resolution criteria\n\nThis market resolves YES if the S&P 500 closes at or above 8,000 at any point during 2026. This market resolves NO if the S&P 500 never reaches 8,000 during 2026.\n\nResolution will be verified using the official S&P 500 closing price from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) or Yahoo Finance.\n\nBackground\n\nThe S&P 500 closed at 6,858.47 on January 2, 2026, requiring approximately a 16.6% gain to reach 8,000. Wall Street strategists project an average 10.2% gain for 2026, though Oppenheimer is most bullish, seeing the index rising 17.8% to 8,100, while Bank of America expects the benchmark to hit 7,100 by year-end 2026. Deutsche Bank set a year-end 2026 price target of 8,000, and JPMorgan is calling for the S&P 500 to reach 7,500 with upside to 8,000 if the Fed continues to cut rates.\n\nConsiderations\n\nThe S&P 500 is currently trading at a very high CAPE ratio, with only the dot-com bubble period trading at a higher valuation. Federal Reserve research suggests President Trump's tariffs will slow economic growth. However, artificial intelligence remains a powerful secular trend, and the infrastructure needed to build it could sustain elevated growth in 2026 and beyond.\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 6, 10:21 AM ET · World Day 855","resolves":1799038740,"resolvesText":"Jan 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 3,005","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791296460,"p":[0.7249,0.2751],"r":[0.7249,0.2751]},{"at":1791307260,"p":[0.7249,0.2751],"r":[0.7249,0.2751]},{"at":1791318060,"p":[0.7249,0.2751],"r":[0.7249,0.2751]},{"at":1791323460,"p":[0.7249,0.2751],"r":[0.6004,0.3996]},{"at":1791336060,"p":[0.7249,0.2751],"r":[0.6004,0.3996]},{"at":1791346860,"p":[0.7249,0.2751],"r":[0.6004,0.3996]},{"at":1791357660,"p":[0.7249,0.2751],"r":[0.6004,0.3996]},{"at":1791368460,"p":[0.7249,0.2751],"r":[0.6004,0.3996]},{"at":1791379260,"p":[0.7249,0.2751],"r":[0.6004,0.3996]},{"at":1791390060,"p":[0.7249,0.2751],"r":[0.6004,0.3996]},{"at":1791400440,"p":[0.7249,0.2751],"r":[0.6373,0.3627]},{"at":1791408917,"p":[0.7249,0.2751],"r":[0.6373,0.3627]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":72.49,"bestBid":72,"bestAsk":73,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":73,"shares":30,"people":0,"house":30,"total":21.9},{"price":74,"shares":60,"people":0,"house":60,"total":66.3},{"price":75,"shares":62,"people":0,"house":62,"total":112.8},{"price":76,"shares":64,"people":0,"house":64,"total":161.44},{"price":77,"shares":65,"people":0,"house":65,"total":211.49},{"price":78,"shares":68,"people":0,"house":68,"total":264.53}],"bids":[{"price":72,"shares":29,"people":0,"house":29,"total":20.88},{"price":71,"shares":58,"people":0,"house":58,"total":62.06},{"price":70,"shares":56,"people":0,"house":56,"total":101.26},{"price":69,"shares":56,"people":0,"house":56,"total":139.9},{"price":68,"shares":54,"people":0,"house":54,"total":176.62},{"price":67,"shares":54,"people":0,"house":54,"total":212.8}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":27.51,"bestBid":27,"bestAsk":28,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":28,"shares":29,"people":0,"house":29,"total":8.12},{"price":29,"shares":58,"people":0,"house":58,"total":24.94},{"price":30,"shares":56,"people":0,"house":56,"total":41.74},{"price":31,"shares":56,"people":0,"house":56,"total":59.1},{"price":32,"shares":54,"people":0,"house":54,"total":76.38},{"price":33,"shares":54,"people":0,"house":54,"total":94.2}],"bids":[{"price":27,"shares":30,"people":0,"house":30,"total":8.1},{"price":26,"shares":60,"people":0,"house":60,"total":23.7},{"price":25,"shares":62,"people":0,"house":62,"total":39.2},{"price":24,"shares":64,"people":0,"house":64,"total":54.56},{"price":23,"shares":65,"people":0,"house":65,"total":69.51},{"price":22,"shares":68,"people":0,"house":68,"total":84.47}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":24,"slug":"bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-october-31","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-october-31","q":"Bab 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2027?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1157,"ref":0.0265},{"name":"No","p":0.8843,"ref":0.9735}],"chance":0.1157,"change24":0.028,"change7d":null,"vol":3259,"trades":166,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/xi-jinping-out-before-2027","ref":0.0265,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":5738,"state":[-10324.713442,1344.668228],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791233005,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":28,"slug":"fed-decision-in-october","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/fed-decision-in-october","q":"Fed Decision in October?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":["fed"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"No change","p":0.8188,"ref":0.8341},{"name":"25 bps increase","p":0.1712,"ref":0.1549},{"name":"50+ 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31?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1854,"ref":0.095},{"name":"No","p":0.8146,"ref":0.905}],"chance":0.1854,"change24":0.0156,"change7d":null,"vol":5418,"trades":159,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/crude-oil-all-time-high-by","ref":0.095,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":4327,"state":[-2274.231782,4131.077409],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":16,"slug":"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","q":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.2364,"ref":0.175},{"name":"No","p":0.7636,"ref":0.825}],"chance":0.2364,"change24":0.0174,"change7d":null,"vol":3484,"trades":86,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","ref":0.175,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":5728,"state":[-4778.424072,1939.239275],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}