{"id":474,"slug":"will-tesla-cease-to-be-the-most-valuable-automaker-by-market-cap-for-any-amount","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/will-tesla-cease-to-be-the-most-valuable-automaker-by-market-cap-for-any-amount","q":"Will Tesla cease to be the most valuable automaker by market cap for any amount of time before the end of 2026?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":["tesla","stocks"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0626,"ref":0.0633},{"name":"No","p":0.9374,"ref":0.9367}],"chance":0.0626,"change24":0,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/cash/will-tesla-cease-to-be-the-most-val","ref":0.0633,"refSrc":"Manifold","b":1646,"state":[-4561.26259,-106.391762],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791244165,"closes":1798790340,"closesText":"Jan 1, 2:59 AM ET · World Day 2,936","closesWorldDay":2936,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"This question will use CompaniesMarketCap.com's automaker list for what counts as an automaker and for market capitalization. If Tesla is dethroned from rank 1 on this list for any amount of time before the end of 2026, this question resolves YES. If for whatever reason I can't use this source to adjudicate the question, I will use credible alternatives sources.\n\nSee also:\n\n@/cash/will-tesla-cease-to-be-the-most-val-gA5ySC6LNy \n\n@/cash/will-tesla-cease-to-be-the-most-val-R95yU2IgOp \n\n@/cash/will-tesla-cease-to-be-the-most-val-l8A5QE6E90 \n\n@/cash/will-tesla-cease-to-be-the-most-val (this question)\n\n@/cash/will-tesla-cease-to-be-the-most-val-alwco1njfs\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 7:49 PM ET · World Day 840","resolves":1799049540,"resolvesText":"Jan 4, 2:59 AM ET · World Day 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December?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1498,"ref":0.065},{"name":"No","p":0.8502,"ref":0.935}],"chance":0.1498,"change24":0,"change7d":null,"vol":2435,"trades":83,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-gold-gc-hit-by-end-of-december","ref":0.065,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":4144,"state":[-5748.973593,1445.267049],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791324642,"closes":1798675200,"closesText":"Dec 30, 7 PM ET · World Day 2,904","closesWorldDay":2904,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}