{"id":344,"slug":"will-marc-andreessen-be-right-that-a-replacement-to-the-francis-scott-key","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/will-marc-andreessen-be-right-that-a-replacement-to-the-francis-scott-key","q":"Will Marc Andreessen be right that a replacement to the Francis Scott Key Bridge will not open before Mar 26 2027?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.9533,"ref":0.9533},{"name":"No","p":0.0467,"ref":0.0467}],"chance":0.9533,"change24":0,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/Jx/will-marc-andreessen-be-right-in-pr","ref":0.9533,"refSrc":"Manifold","b":1424,"state":[-68.162731,-4361.947275],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791239125,"closes":1806130740,"closesText":"Mar 27, 2:59 AM ET · World Day 4,975","closesWorldDay":4975,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"Andreessen tweeted this statement on 3/26/24. This question will resolve if/when a replacement bridge becomes operational. But it will close three years after the bridge collapse, on 3/26/27. I'm not betting in this market.\n\nTo make this clearer:\n\nIf the bridge is replaced before March 26, 2027, then the market will resolve as no. (As in, no, Marc Andreessen will not be right in predicting the bridge will never be replaced.)\n\nIf the bridge is not replaced before March 26, 2027, the market will resolve as yes.\n\n[tweet]\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 6:25 PM ET · World Day 839","resolves":1806389940,"resolvesText":"Mar 30, 2:59 AM ET · World Day 5,047","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791239100,"p":[0.9533,0.0467],"r":[0.9533,0.0467]},{"at":1791253260,"p":[0.9533,0.0467],"r":[0.9533,0.0467]},{"at":1791264060,"p":[0.9533,0.0467],"r":[0.9533,0.0467]},{"at":1791274860,"p":[0.9533,0.0467],"r":[0.9533,0.0467]},{"at":1791285660,"p":[0.9533,0.0467],"r":[0.9533,0.0467]},{"at":1791296460,"p":[0.9533,0.0467],"r":[0.9533,0.0467]},{"at":1791307260,"p":[0.9533,0.0467],"r":[0.9533,0.0467]},{"at":1791318060,"p":[0.9533,0.0467],"r":[0.9533,0.0467]},{"at":1791328860,"p":[0.9533,0.0467],"r":[0.9533,0.0467]},{"at":1791339660,"p":[0.9533,0.0467],"r":[0.9533,0.0467]},{"at":1791350460,"p":[0.9533,0.0467],"r":[0.9533,0.0467]},{"at":1791361260,"p":[0.9533,0.0467],"r":[0.9533,0.0467]},{"at":1791372060,"p":[0.9533,0.0467],"r":[0.9533,0.0467]},{"at":1791382860,"p":[0.9533,0.0467],"r":[0.9533,0.0467]},{"at":1791393660,"p":[0.9533,0.0467],"r":[0.9533,0.0467]},{"at":1791404460,"p":[0.9533,0.0467],"r":[0.9533,0.0467]},{"at":1791415260,"p":[0.9533,0.0467],"r":[0.9533,0.0467]},{"at":1791426120,"p":[0.9533,0.0467],"r":[0.9533,0.0467]},{"at":1791436920,"p":[0.9533,0.0467],"r":[0.9533,0.0467]},{"at":1791447720,"p":[0.9533,0.0467],"r":[0.9533,0.0467]},{"at":1791460651,"p":[0.9533,0.0467],"r":[0.9533,0.0467]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":95.33,"bestBid":95,"bestAsk":96,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":96,"shares":232,"people":0,"house":232,"total":222.72},{"price":97,"shares":424,"people":0,"house":424,"total":634},{"price":98,"shares":592,"people":0,"house":592,"total":1214.16},{"price":99,"shares":1002,"people":0,"house":1002,"total":2206.14}],"bids":[{"price":95,"shares":101,"people":0,"house":101,"total":95.95},{"price":94,"shares":275,"people":0,"house":275,"total":354.45},{"price":93,"shares":234,"people":0,"house":234,"total":572.07},{"price":92,"shares":206,"people":0,"house":206,"total":761.59},{"price":91,"shares":183,"people":0,"house":183,"total":928.12},{"price":90,"shares":166,"people":0,"house":166,"total":1077.52}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":4.67,"bestBid":4,"bestAsk":5,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":5,"shares":101,"people":0,"house":101,"total":5.05},{"price":6,"shares":275,"people":0,"house":275,"total":21.55},{"price":7,"shares":234,"people":0,"house":234,"total":37.93},{"price":8,"shares":206,"people":0,"house":206,"total":54.41},{"price":9,"shares":183,"people":0,"house":183,"total":70.88},{"price":10,"shares":166,"people":0,"house":166,"total":87.48}],"bids":[{"price":4,"shares":232,"people":0,"house":232,"total":9.28},{"price":3,"shares":424,"people":0,"house":424,"total":22},{"price":2,"shares":592,"people":0,"house":592,"total":33.84},{"price":1,"shares":1002,"people":0,"house":1002,"total":43.86}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":114,"slug":"which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","q":"Which party will win the House in 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Democratic Party","p":0.8367,"ref":0.9141},{"name":"Republican Party","p":0.1633,"ref":0.0859}],"chance":0.8367,"change24":-0.0078,"change7d":null,"vol":8368,"trades":208,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","ref":0.9141,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":5709,"state":[7316.91756,-2008.835248],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232165,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":29,"slug":"balance-of-power-2026-midterms-who-wins","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/balance-of-power-2026-midterms-who-wins","q":"Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Democrats Sweep","p":0.7251,"ref":0.6322},{"name":"R Senate, D House","p":0.2215,"ref":0.2737},{"name":"Republicans Sweep","p":0.0454,"ref":0.0846},{"name":"D Senate, R House","p":0.0059,"ref":0.0085},{"name":"Other","p":0.0021,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.7251,"change24":0.0446,"change7d":null,"vol":4838,"trades":85,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2026-midterms","ref":0.6322,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":7367.5,"state":[2469.40143,-6266.489176,-17940.054992,-32976.156885,-40679.669526],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1857,"slug":"nc-04-house-election-winner-who-wins","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/nc-04-house-election-winner-who-wins","q":"NC-04 House Election Winner: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Valerie Foushee (D)","p":0.9307,"ref":0.9665},{"name":"Max Ganorkar (R)","p":0.0693,"ref":0.0335}],"chance":0.9307,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":3992,"trades":62,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/nc-04-house-election-winner","ref":0.9665,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":2387,"state":[3820.841923,-2379.812014],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791395211,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":182,"slug":"minnesota-senate-election-winner-who-wins","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/minnesota-senate-election-winner-who-wins","q":"Minnesota Senate Election Winner: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Peggy Flanagan (D)","p":0.778,"ref":0.855},{"name":"Michele Tafoya (R)","p":0.222,"ref":0.145}],"chance":0.778,"change24":-0.0218,"change7d":null,"vol":10158,"trades":249,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/minnesota-senate-election-winner","ref":0.855,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":2937,"state":[9383.059307,5699.71477],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791233605,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":2067,"slug":"nj-08-house-election-winner-who-wins","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/nj-08-house-election-winner-who-wins","q":"NJ-08 House Election Winner: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Rob Menendez (D)","p":0.7226,"ref":0.9645},{"name":"Republican Party","p":0.2774,"ref":0.0355}],"chance":0.7226,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":2694,"trades":56,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/nj-08-house-election-winner","ref":0.9645,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":2039,"state":[1803.300782,-148.776094],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791427941,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1391,"slug":"wi-05-house-election-winner-who-wins","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/wi-05-house-election-winner-who-wins","q":"WI-05 House Election Winner: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Scott Fitzgerald (R)","p":0.9009,"ref":0.981},{"name":"Andrew Beck (D)","p":0.0991,"ref":0.019}],"chance":0.9009,"change24":-0.0081,"change7d":null,"vol":5977,"trades":121,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/wi-05-house-election-winner","ref":0.981,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":2319,"state":[5135.018322,17.489986],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791327402,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}