{"id":904,"slug":"will-kenya-have-an-ebola-case-in-2026","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/will-kenya-have-an-ebola-case-in-2026","q":"Will Kenya have an Ebola case in 2026?","cat":"weather","catName":"Weather","emoji":"⛅","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.974,"ref":0.999},{"name":"No","p":0.026,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.974,"change24":0,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-have-an-ebola-case-in-2026","ref":0.999,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":1194,"state":[-31.454707,-4357.692537],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791279341,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"resolved","winner":"Yes","resolved":1791285406,"creator":null,"about":"Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAny active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.","resolutionSource":"Polymarket's own resolution (UMA's optimistic oracle). If Polymarket voids or cancels it, everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 6, 5:35 AM ET · World Day 850","resolves":1798779540,"resolvesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","evidence":{"source":"Polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-have-an-ebola-case-in-2026","prices":[1,0],"uma":"resolved","closedTime":"2026-10-06 11:07:27+00","read":1791285401},"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791279300,"p":[0.974,0.026],"r":[0.974,0.026]},{"at":1791280500,"p":[0.974,0.026],"r":[0.999,0.001]},{"at":1791285406,"p":[1,0],"r":[0.999,0.001]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":97.4,"bestBid":null,"bestAsk":null,"spread":null,"last":null,"asks":[],"bids":[],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":2.6,"bestBid":null,"bestAsk":null,"spread":null,"last":null,"asks":[],"bids":[],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":1053,"slug":"hantavirus-pandemic-in-2026","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/hantavirus-pandemic-in-2026","q":"Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?","cat":"weather","catName":"Weather","emoji":"⛅","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1073,"ref":0.0195},{"name":"No","p":0.8927,"ref":0.9805}],"chance":0.1073,"change24":0.0178,"change7d":null,"vol":2881,"trades":132,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/hantavirus-pandemic-in-2026","ref":0.0195,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":5901,"state":[-11364.204416,1138.6711],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791291941,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":273,"slug":"where-will-2026-rank-among-the-hottest-years-on-record","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/where-will-2026-rank-among-the-hottest-years-on-record","q":"Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on 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Austin on October 8?","cat":"weather","catName":"Weather","emoji":"⛅","tags":["temperature"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"59°F or below","p":0.1737,"ref":0.1702},{"name":"78°F or 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924","closesWorldDay":924,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1448,"slug":"highest-temperature-in-beijing-on-october-8","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/highest-temperature-in-beijing-on-october-8","q":"Highest temperature in Beijing on October 8?","cat":"weather","catName":"Weather","emoji":"⛅","tags":["temperature"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"26°C","p":0.4163,"ref":0.4985},{"name":"27°C","p":0.3879,"ref":0.1582},{"name":"25°C","p":0.0852,"ref":0.3068},{"name":"28°C","p":0.0615,"ref":0.0096},{"name":"24°C","p":0.0147,"ref":0.0187},{"name":"29°C","p":0.0099,"ref":0.0019},{"name":"23°C","p":0.0061,"ref":0.001},{"name":"20°C or below","p":0.0052,"ref":0.001},{"name":"22°C","p":0.0052,"ref":0.001},{"name":"30°C or 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Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}