{"id":346,"slug":"will-jd-vance-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/will-jd-vance-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election","q":"Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.2072,"ref":0.2059},{"name":"No","p":0.7928,"ref":0.7941}],"chance":0.2072,"change24":0,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-jd-vance-win-the-2028-us-presi","ref":0.2059,"refSrc":"Manifold","b":2478,"state":[-3900.105327,-575.468226],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791239125,"closes":1857275940,"closesText":"Nov 8, 12:59 AM ET · World Day 19,182","closesWorldDay":19182,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"This mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 6:25 PM ET · World Day 839","resolves":1857535140,"resolvesText":"Nov 11, 12:59 AM ET · World Day 19,254","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791239100,"p":[0.2072,0.7928],"r":[0.2072,0.7928]},{"at":1791253260,"p":[0.2072,0.7928],"r":[0.2072,0.7928]},{"at":1791264060,"p":[0.2072,0.7928],"r":[0.2072,0.7928]},{"at":1791274860,"p":[0.2072,0.7928],"r":[0.2072,0.7928]},{"at":1791285660,"p":[0.2072,0.7928],"r":[0.2072,0.7928]},{"at":1791296460,"p":[0.2072,0.7928],"r":[0.2072,0.7928]},{"at":1791307260,"p":[0.2072,0.7928],"r":[0.2072,0.7928]},{"at":1791318060,"p":[0.2072,0.7928],"r":[0.2072,0.7928]},{"at":1791328860,"p":[0.2072,0.7928],"r":[0.2072,0.7928]},{"at":1791339660,"p":[0.2072,0.7928],"r":[0.2072,0.7928]},{"at":1791350460,"p":[0.2072,0.7928],"r":[0.2072,0.7928]},{"at":1791361260,"p":[0.2072,0.7928],"r":[0.2072,0.7928]},{"at":1791372060,"p":[0.2072,0.7928],"r":[0.2072,0.7928]},{"at":1791382860,"p":[0.2072,0.7928],"r":[0.2072,0.7928]},{"at":1791393660,"p":[0.2072,0.7928],"r":[0.2072,0.7928]},{"at":1791404460,"p":[0.2072,0.7928],"r":[0.2072,0.7928]},{"at":1791415260,"p":[0.2072,0.7928],"r":[0.2072,0.7928]},{"at":1791426120,"p":[0.2072,0.7928],"r":[0.2072,0.7928]},{"at":1791436920,"p":[0.2072,0.7928],"r":[0.2072,0.7928]},{"at":1791447720,"p":[0.2072,0.7928],"r":[0.2072,0.7928]},{"at":1791460761,"p":[0.2072,0.7928],"r":[0.2059,0.7941]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":20.72,"bestBid":20,"bestAsk":21,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":21,"shares":41,"people":0,"house":41,"total":8.61},{"price":22,"shares":147,"people":0,"house":147,"total":40.95},{"price":23,"shares":142,"people":0,"house":142,"total":73.61},{"price":24,"shares":138,"people":0,"house":138,"total":106.73},{"price":25,"shares":134,"people":0,"house":134,"total":140.23},{"price":26,"shares":131,"people":0,"house":131,"total":174.29}],"bids":[{"price":20,"shares":111,"people":0,"house":111,"total":22.2},{"price":19,"shares":157,"people":0,"house":157,"total":52.03},{"price":18,"shares":165,"people":0,"house":165,"total":81.73},{"price":17,"shares":172,"people":0,"house":172,"total":110.97},{"price":16,"shares":179,"people":0,"house":179,"total":139.61},{"price":15,"shares":190,"people":0,"house":190,"total":168.11}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":79.28,"bestBid":79,"bestAsk":80,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":80,"shares":111,"people":0,"house":111,"total":88.8},{"price":81,"shares":157,"people":0,"house":157,"total":215.97},{"price":82,"shares":165,"people":0,"house":165,"total":351.27},{"price":83,"shares":172,"people":0,"house":172,"total":494.03},{"price":84,"shares":179,"people":0,"house":179,"total":644.39},{"price":85,"shares":190,"people":0,"house":190,"total":805.89}],"bids":[{"price":79,"shares":41,"people":0,"house":41,"total":32.39},{"price":78,"shares":147,"people":0,"house":147,"total":147.05},{"price":77,"shares":142,"people":0,"house":142,"total":256.39},{"price":76,"shares":138,"people":0,"house":138,"total":361.27},{"price":75,"shares":134,"people":0,"house":134,"total":461.77},{"price":74,"shares":131,"people":0,"house":131,"total":558.71}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":114,"slug":"which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","q":"Which party will win the House in 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Democratic Party","p":0.8367,"ref":0.9141},{"name":"Republican Party","p":0.1633,"ref":0.0859}],"chance":0.8367,"change24":-0.0088,"change7d":null,"vol":8368,"trades":208,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","ref":0.9141,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":5709,"state":[7316.91756,-2008.835248],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232165,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1676,"slug":"zelenskyy-out-as-ukraine-president-by-end-of-2026","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/zelenskyy-out-as-ukraine-president-by-end-of-2026","q":"Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1258,"ref":0.06},{"name":"No","p":0.8742,"ref":0.94}],"chance":0.1258,"change24":0.0547,"change7d":null,"vol":7129,"trades":151,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/zelenskyy-out-as-ukraine-president-before-2027","ref":0.06,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":4795,"state":[-3547.304387,5746.307439],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791361010,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":29,"slug":"balance-of-power-2026-midterms-who-wins","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/balance-of-power-2026-midterms-who-wins","q":"Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Democrats Sweep","p":0.7251,"ref":0.6322},{"name":"R Senate, D House","p":0.2215,"ref":0.2737},{"name":"Republicans Sweep","p":0.0454,"ref":0.0846},{"name":"D Senate, R House","p":0.0059,"ref":0.0085},{"name":"Other","p":0.0021,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.7251,"change24":0.0446,"change7d":null,"vol":4838,"trades":85,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2026-midterms","ref":0.6322,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":7367.5,"state":[2469.40143,-6266.489176,-17940.054992,-32976.156885,-40679.669526],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1857,"slug":"nc-04-house-election-winner-who-wins","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/nc-04-house-election-winner-who-wins","q":"NC-04 House Election Winner: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Valerie Foushee (D)","p":0.9307,"ref":0.9665},{"name":"Max Ganorkar (R)","p":0.0693,"ref":0.0335}],"chance":0.9307,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":3992,"trades":62,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/nc-04-house-election-winner","ref":0.9665,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":2387,"state":[3820.841923,-2379.812014],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791395211,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":17,"slug":"putin-out-as-president-of-russia-by-december-31-2026","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-by-december-31-2026","q":"Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0876,"ref":0.0305},{"name":"No","p":0.9124,"ref":0.9695}],"chance":0.0876,"change24":-0.0189,"change7d":null,"vol":7748,"trades":256,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/putin-out-before-2027","ref":0.0305,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":6055,"state":[-8217.346856,5969.378115],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":182,"slug":"minnesota-senate-election-winner-who-wins","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/minnesota-senate-election-winner-who-wins","q":"Minnesota Senate Election Winner: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Peggy Flanagan (D)","p":0.778,"ref":0.855},{"name":"Michele Tafoya (R)","p":0.222,"ref":0.145}],"chance":0.778,"change24":-0.0218,"change7d":null,"vol":10158,"trades":249,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/minnesota-senate-election-winner","ref":0.855,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":2937,"state":[9383.059307,5699.71477],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791233605,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}