{"id":305,"slug":"will-donald-trump-be-impeached-during-his-second-term","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/will-donald-trump-be-impeached-during-his-second-term","q":"Will Donald Trump be impeached during his second term?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump","us-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.6513,"ref":0.6428},{"name":"No","p":0.3487,"ref":0.3572}],"chance":0.6513,"change24":0,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/MattP/will-donald-trump-be-impeached-duri","ref":0.6428,"refSrc":"Manifold","b":2088,"state":[-895.233059,-2199.928916],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791237685,"closes":1863669540,"closesText":"Jan 21, 12:59 AM ET · World Day 20,958","closesWorldDay":20958,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"Question resolves based on him being officially impeached by the House (as he was twice during his first term); conviction by the Senate does not affect this question one way or the other.\n\nResolves N/A in the (now quite unlikely) event that he does not win.\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 6:01 PM ET · World Day 839","resolves":1863928740,"resolvesText":"Jan 24, 12:59 AM ET · World Day 21,030","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791237660,"p":[0.6513,0.3487],"r":[0.6513,0.3487]},{"at":1791249660,"p":[0.6513,0.3487],"r":[0.6513,0.3487]},{"at":1791260460,"p":[0.6513,0.3487],"r":[0.6513,0.3487]},{"at":1791271260,"p":[0.6513,0.3487],"r":[0.6513,0.3487]},{"at":1791282060,"p":[0.6513,0.3487],"r":[0.6513,0.3487]},{"at":1791292860,"p":[0.6513,0.3487],"r":[0.6513,0.3487]},{"at":1791303660,"p":[0.6513,0.3487],"r":[0.6513,0.3487]},{"at":1791314460,"p":[0.6513,0.3487],"r":[0.6513,0.3487]},{"at":1791325260,"p":[0.6513,0.3487],"r":[0.6513,0.3487]},{"at":1791336060,"p":[0.6513,0.3487],"r":[0.6513,0.3487]},{"at":1791346860,"p":[0.6513,0.3487],"r":[0.6513,0.3487]},{"at":1791357660,"p":[0.6513,0.3487],"r":[0.6513,0.3487]},{"at":1791368460,"p":[0.6513,0.3487],"r":[0.6513,0.3487]},{"at":1791378180,"p":[0.6513,0.3487],"r":[0.6434,0.3566]},{"at":1791390060,"p":[0.6513,0.3487],"r":[0.6434,0.3566]},{"at":1791400860,"p":[0.6513,0.3487],"r":[0.6428,0.3572]},{"at":1791411660,"p":[0.6513,0.3487],"r":[0.6428,0.3572]},{"at":1791422520,"p":[0.6513,0.3487],"r":[0.6428,0.3572]},{"at":1791433320,"p":[0.6513,0.3487],"r":[0.6428,0.3572]},{"at":1791444120,"p":[0.6513,0.3487],"r":[0.6428,0.3572]},{"at":1791454920,"p":[0.6513,0.3487],"r":[0.6428,0.3572]},{"at":1791469448,"p":[0.6513,0.3487],"r":[0.6428,0.3572]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":65.13,"bestBid":65,"bestAsk":66,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":66,"shares":80,"people":0,"house":80,"total":52.8},{"price":67,"shares":94,"people":0,"house":94,"total":115.78},{"price":68,"shares":95,"people":0,"house":95,"total":180.38},{"price":69,"shares":97,"people":0,"house":97,"total":247.31},{"price":70,"shares":98,"people":0,"house":98,"total":315.91},{"price":71,"shares":101,"people":0,"house":101,"total":387.62}],"bids":[{"price":65,"shares":12,"people":0,"house":12,"total":7.8},{"price":64,"shares":91,"people":0,"house":91,"total":66.04},{"price":63,"shares":90,"people":0,"house":90,"total":122.74},{"price":62,"shares":90,"people":0,"house":90,"total":178.54},{"price":61,"shares":88,"people":0,"house":88,"total":232.22},{"price":60,"shares":87,"people":0,"house":87,"total":284.42}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":34.87,"bestBid":34,"bestAsk":35,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":35,"shares":12,"people":0,"house":12,"total":4.2},{"price":36,"shares":91,"people":0,"house":91,"total":36.96},{"price":37,"shares":90,"people":0,"house":90,"total":70.26},{"price":38,"shares":90,"people":0,"house":90,"total":104.46},{"price":39,"shares":88,"people":0,"house":88,"total":138.78},{"price":40,"shares":87,"people":0,"house":87,"total":173.58}],"bids":[{"price":34,"shares":80,"people":0,"house":80,"total":27.2},{"price":33,"shares":94,"people":0,"house":94,"total":58.22},{"price":32,"shares":95,"people":0,"house":95,"total":88.62},{"price":31,"shares":97,"people":0,"house":97,"total":118.69},{"price":30,"shares":98,"people":0,"house":98,"total":148.09},{"price":29,"shares":101,"people":0,"house":101,"total":177.38}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":19,"slug":"will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-2027","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-2027","q":"Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.129,"ref":0.055},{"name":"No","p":0.871,"ref":0.945}],"chance":0.129,"change24":-0.0296,"change7d":null,"vol":6473,"trades":192,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026","ref":0.055,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":6143,"state":[-6804.292922,4929.488331],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":13,"slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-15-2026","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-15-2026","q":"US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1569,"ref":0.085},{"name":"No","p":0.8431,"ref":0.915}],"chance":0.1569,"change24":-0.0237,"change7d":null,"vol":8469,"trades":201,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-15-2026","ref":0.085,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":4035,"state":[995.453379,7779.200831],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1792123140,"closesText":"Oct 15, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,084","closesWorldDay":1084,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":11,"slug":"clarity-act-h-r-3633-signed-into-law-in-2026","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/clarity-act-h-r-3633-signed-into-law-in-2026","q":"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1257,"ref":0.0485},{"name":"No","p":0.8743,"ref":0.9515}],"chance":0.1257,"change24":-0.0024,"change7d":null,"vol":8290,"trades":237,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026","ref":0.0485,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":6064,"state":[-4943.825141,6815.524649],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779600,"closesText":"Jan 1, 12 AM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":26,"slug":"us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-15","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-15","q":"US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.8206,"ref":0.885},{"name":"No","p":0.1794,"ref":0.115}],"chance":0.8206,"change24":-0.016,"change7d":null,"vol":9592,"trades":202,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt/us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-15","ref":0.885,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":2983,"state":[8916.675856,4381.025881],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1792123140,"closesText":"Oct 15, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,084","closesWorldDay":1084,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":98,"slug":"will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027","q":"Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1042,"ref":0.0215},{"name":"No","p":0.8958,"ref":0.9785}],"chance":0.1042,"change24":-0.0051,"change7d":null,"vol":4675,"trades":230,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027","ref":0.0215,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":6328,"state":[-10973.91816,2639.542951],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1152,"slug":"trump-out-as-president-before-2027","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/trump-out-as-president-before-2027","q":"Trump out as President before 2027?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1288,"ref":0.0405},{"name":"No","p":0.8712,"ref":0.9595}],"chance":0.1288,"change24":0.0208,"change7d":null,"vol":2295,"trades":101,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/trump-out-as-president-before-2027","ref":0.0405,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":5640,"state":[-9988.898624,794.289058],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791301002,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}