{"id":33,"slug":"will-any-german-state-prime-minister-in-2026-be-elected-with-afd-support","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/will-any-german-state-prime-minister-in-2026-be-elected-with-afd-support","q":"Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.7611,"ref":0.7372},{"name":"No","p":0.2389,"ref":0.2628}],"chance":0.7611,"change24":0,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/will-any-german-state-prime-ministe","ref":0.7372,"refSrc":"Manifold","b":1782,"state":[-486.54307,-2551.072025],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798761540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 2,928","closesWorldDay":2928,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"Resolves based on any State Prime Minister (Ministerpräsident) elections in German state parliaments in 2026, whether after scheduled state elections or otherwise (e.g., a state PM resigning).\n\nResolves YES if AfD MPs vote for a winning candidate AND their votes are necessary for the candidate to win.\n\nResolves NO if all State Prime Ministers elected in 2026 are elected without necessary AfD support.\n\nScheduled 2026 state elections:\n\nBaden-Württemberg (8 March)\n\nRhineland-Palatinate (22 March)\n\nSaxony-Anhalt (6 September)\n\nBerlin (20 September)\n\nMecklenburg-Vorpommern (20 September)\n\nFor these five scheduled elections held in 2026, the subsequent Prime Minister vote counts even if it takes place in 2027.\n\nExample: The only time so far that a prime minister was voted in with necessary votes from the AfD was the election of Thomas Kemmerich (FDP) as State Prime Minister of Thuringia in 2020 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Thuringian_government_crisis).\n\nNote: If votes are secret, resolution will be based on other publicly available information (e.g., coalition agreements, party statements). In ambiguous cases, resolves based on market creator's best judgment.\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 4:21 PM ET · World Day 837","resolves":1799020740,"resolvesText":"Jan 3, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 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1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}