{"id":1886,"slug":"variational-fdv-above-500m-one-day-after-launch","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/variational-fdv-above-500m-one-day-after-launch","q":"Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["space"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.875,"ref":0.885},{"name":"No","p":0.125,"ref":0.115}],"chance":0.875,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/variational-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch","ref":0.885,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":3978,"state":[-531.18788,-8272.018453],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791397011,"closes":1830315600,"closesText":"Jan 1, 12 AM ET · World Day 11,693","closesWorldDay":11693,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":"Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".","resolutionSource":"Polymarket's own resolution (UMA's optimistic oracle). If Polymarket voids or cancels it, everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 7, 2:16 PM ET · World Day 883","resolves":1830315600,"resolvesText":"Jan 1, 12 AM ET · World Day 11,693","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791396960,"p":[0.875,0.125],"r":[0.875,0.125]},{"at":1791408060,"p":[0.875,0.125],"r":[0.875,0.125]},{"at":1791418860,"p":[0.875,0.125],"r":[0.875,0.125]},{"at":1791429720,"p":[0.875,0.125],"r":[0.875,0.125]},{"at":1791431460,"p":[0.875,0.125],"r":[0.885,0.115]},{"at":1791444120,"p":[0.875,0.125],"r":[0.885,0.115]},{"at":1791454920,"p":[0.875,0.125],"r":[0.885,0.115]},{"at":1791475337,"p":[0.875,0.125],"r":[0.885,0.115]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":87.5,"bestBid":87,"bestAsk":88,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":88,"shares":185,"people":0,"house":185,"total":162.8},{"price":89,"shares":391,"people":0,"house":391,"total":510.79},{"price":90,"shares":424,"people":0,"house":424,"total":892.39},{"price":91,"shares":463,"people":0,"house":463,"total":1313.72},{"price":92,"shares":512,"people":0,"house":512,"total":1784.76},{"price":93,"shares":574,"people":0,"house":574,"total":2318.58}],"bids":[{"price":87,"shares":179,"people":0,"house":179,"total":155.73},{"price":86,"shares":341,"people":0,"house":341,"total":448.99},{"price":85,"shares":321,"people":0,"house":321,"total":721.84},{"price":84,"shares":303,"people":0,"house":303,"total":976.36},{"price":83,"shares":289,"people":0,"house":289,"total":1216.23},{"price":82,"shares":276,"people":0,"house":276,"total":1442.55}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":12.5,"bestBid":12,"bestAsk":13,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":13,"shares":179,"people":0,"house":179,"total":23.27},{"price":14,"shares":341,"people":0,"house":341,"total":71.01},{"price":15,"shares":321,"people":0,"house":321,"total":119.16},{"price":16,"shares":303,"people":0,"house":303,"total":167.64},{"price":17,"shares":289,"people":0,"house":289,"total":216.77},{"price":18,"shares":276,"people":0,"house":276,"total":266.45}],"bids":[{"price":12,"shares":185,"people":0,"house":185,"total":22.2},{"price":11,"shares":391,"people":0,"house":391,"total":65.21},{"price":10,"shares":424,"people":0,"house":424,"total":107.61},{"price":9,"shares":463,"people":0,"house":463,"total":149.28},{"price":8,"shares":512,"people":0,"house":512,"total":190.24},{"price":7,"shares":574,"people":0,"house":574,"total":230.42}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":1828,"slug":"variational-fdv-above-1b-one-day-after-launch","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/variational-fdv-above-1b-one-day-after-launch","q":"Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["space"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.635,"ref":0.635},{"name":"No","p":0.365,"ref":0.365}],"chance":0.635,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/variational-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch","ref":0.635,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":3747,"state":[-1701.626159,-3776.443646],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791391611,"closes":1830315600,"closesText":"Jan 1, 12 AM ET · World Day 11,693","closesWorldDay":11693,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1978,"slug":"variational-fdv-above-800m-one-day-after-launch","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/variational-fdv-above-800m-one-day-after-launch","q":"Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["space"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.775,"ref":0.765},{"name":"No","p":0.225,"ref":0.235}],"chance":0.775,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/variational-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/variational-fdv-above-800m-one-day-after-launch-842-835-884","ref":0.765,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":3534,"state":[-900.78921,-5271.508335],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791411052,"closes":1830315600,"closesText":"Jan 1, 12 AM ET · World Day 11,693","closesWorldDay":11693,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1861,"slug":"variational-fdv-above-2b-one-day-after-launch","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/variational-fdv-above-2b-one-day-after-launch","q":"Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["space"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.294,"ref":0.293},{"name":"No","p":0.706,"ref":0.707}],"chance":0.294,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/variational-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch","ref":0.293,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":3343,"state":[-4092.418735,-1163.832159],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791395451,"closes":1830315600,"closesText":"Jan 1, 12 AM ET · World Day 11,693","closesWorldDay":11693,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1942,"slug":"will-the-doge-1-lunar-mission-launch-by-december-31-2026","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/will-the-doge-1-lunar-mission-launch-by-december-31-2026","q":"Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?","cat":"culture","catName":"Culture","emoji":"🎬","tags":["space","spacex"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1073,"ref":0.0355},{"name":"No","p":0.8927,"ref":0.9645}],"chance":0.1073,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":430,"trades":21,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-doge-1-lunar-mission-launch-before-2027","ref":0.0355,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":4032,"state":[-8683.78365,-139.472705],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791405051,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1509,"slug":"predict-fun-fdv-above-2b-one-day-after-launch","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/predict-fun-fdv-above-2b-one-day-after-launch","q":"Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["space"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.204,"ref":0.2015},{"name":"No","p":0.796,"ref":0.7985}],"chance":0.204,"change24":0,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/predictfun-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/predictfun-fdv-above-2b-one-day-after-launch","ref":0.2015,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":3117,"state":[-4954.893184,-711.162542],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791344202,"closes":1830315600,"closesText":"Jan 1, 12 AM ET · World Day 11,693","closesWorldDay":11693,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":707,"slug":"will-predict-fun-launch-a-token-by-december-31-2026","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/will-predict-fun-launch-a-token-by-december-31-2026","q":"Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["space"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.805,"ref":0.835},{"name":"No","p":0.195,"ref":0.165}],"chance":0.805,"change24":0,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-predictfun-launch-a-token-by","ref":0.835,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":2554,"state":[-553.995806,-4175.16611],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791262407,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}