{"id":1828,"slug":"variational-fdv-above-1b-one-day-after-launch","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/variational-fdv-above-1b-one-day-after-launch","q":"Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["space"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.635,"ref":0.635},{"name":"No","p":0.365,"ref":0.365}],"chance":0.635,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/variational-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch","ref":0.635,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":3747,"state":[-1701.626159,-3776.443646],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791391611,"closes":1830315600,"closesText":"Jan 1, 12 AM ET · World Day 11,693","closesWorldDay":11693,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":"Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".","resolutionSource":"Polymarket's own resolution (UMA's optimistic oracle). If Polymarket voids or cancels it, everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 7, 12:46 PM ET · World Day 881","resolves":1830315600,"resolvesText":"Jan 1, 12 AM ET · World Day 11,693","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791391560,"p":[0.635,0.365],"r":[0.635,0.365]},{"at":1791400500,"p":[0.635,0.365],"r":[0.61,0.39]},{"at":1791401160,"p":[0.635,0.365],"r":[0.605,0.395]},{"at":1791401520,"p":[0.635,0.365],"r":[0.62,0.38]},{"at":1791402360,"p":[0.635,0.365],"r":[0.625,0.375]},{"at":1791403560,"p":[0.635,0.365],"r":[0.615,0.385]},{"at":1791409560,"p":[0.635,0.365],"r":[0.625,0.375]},{"at":1791410760,"p":[0.635,0.365],"r":[0.62,0.38]},{"at":1791411960,"p":[0.635,0.365],"r":[0.625,0.375]},{"at":1791413880,"p":[0.635,0.365],"r":[0.645,0.355]},{"at":1791423000,"p":[0.635,0.365],"r":[0.635,0.365]},{"at":1791428940,"p":[0.635,0.365],"r":[0.645,0.355]},{"at":1791440520,"p":[0.635,0.365],"r":[0.645,0.355]},{"at":1791451320,"p":[0.635,0.365],"r":[0.645,0.355]},{"at":1791453180,"p":[0.635,0.365],"r":[0.635,0.365]},{"at":1791460371,"p":[0.635,0.365],"r":[0.635,0.365]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":63.5,"bestBid":63,"bestAsk":64,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":64,"shares":81,"people":0,"house":81,"total":51.84},{"price":65,"shares":164,"people":0,"house":164,"total":158.44},{"price":66,"shares":166,"people":0,"house":166,"total":268},{"price":67,"shares":168,"people":0,"house":168,"total":380.56},{"price":68,"shares":171,"people":0,"house":171,"total":496.84},{"price":69,"shares":173,"people":0,"house":173,"total":616.21}],"bids":[{"price":63,"shares":81,"people":0,"house":81,"total":51.03},{"price":62,"shares":159,"people":0,"house":159,"total":149.61},{"price":61,"shares":159,"people":0,"house":159,"total":246.6},{"price":60,"shares":157,"people":0,"house":157,"total":340.8},{"price":59,"shares":155,"people":0,"house":155,"total":432.25},{"price":58,"shares":154,"people":0,"house":154,"total":521.57}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":36.5,"bestBid":36,"bestAsk":37,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":37,"shares":81,"people":0,"house":81,"total":29.97},{"price":38,"shares":159,"people":0,"house":159,"total":90.39},{"price":39,"shares":159,"people":0,"house":159,"total":152.4},{"price":40,"shares":157,"people":0,"house":157,"total":215.2},{"price":41,"shares":155,"people":0,"house":155,"total":278.75},{"price":42,"shares":154,"people":0,"house":154,"total":343.43}],"bids":[{"price":36,"shares":81,"people":0,"house":81,"total":29.16},{"price":35,"shares":164,"people":0,"house":164,"total":86.56},{"price":34,"shares":166,"people":0,"house":166,"total":143},{"price":33,"shares":168,"people":0,"house":168,"total":198.44},{"price":32,"shares":171,"people":0,"house":171,"total":253.16},{"price":31,"shares":173,"people":0,"house":173,"total":306.79}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":1978,"slug":"variational-fdv-above-800m-one-day-after-launch","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/variational-fdv-above-800m-one-day-after-launch","q":"Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["space"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.775,"ref":0.765},{"name":"No","p":0.225,"ref":0.235}],"chance":0.775,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/variational-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/variational-fdv-above-800m-one-day-after-launch-842-835-884","ref":0.765,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":3534,"state":[-900.78921,-5271.508335],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791411052,"closes":1830315600,"closesText":"Jan 1, 12 AM ET · World Day 11,693","closesWorldDay":11693,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1886,"slug":"variational-fdv-above-500m-one-day-after-launch","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/variational-fdv-above-500m-one-day-after-launch","q":"Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["space"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.875,"ref":0.885},{"name":"No","p":0.125,"ref":0.115}],"chance":0.875,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/variational-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch","ref":0.885,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":3978,"state":[-531.18788,-8272.018453],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791397011,"closes":1830315600,"closesText":"Jan 1, 12 AM ET · World Day 11,693","closesWorldDay":11693,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1861,"slug":"variational-fdv-above-2b-one-day-after-launch","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/variational-fdv-above-2b-one-day-after-launch","q":"Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["space"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.294,"ref":0.293},{"name":"No","p":0.706,"ref":0.707}],"chance":0.294,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/variational-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch","ref":0.293,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":3343,"state":[-4092.418735,-1163.832159],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791395451,"closes":1830315600,"closesText":"Jan 1, 12 AM ET · World Day 11,693","closesWorldDay":11693,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1942,"slug":"will-the-doge-1-lunar-mission-launch-by-december-31-2026","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/will-the-doge-1-lunar-mission-launch-by-december-31-2026","q":"Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?","cat":"culture","catName":"Culture","emoji":"🎬","tags":["space","spacex"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1073,"ref":0.0355},{"name":"No","p":0.8927,"ref":0.9645}],"chance":0.1073,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":430,"trades":21,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-doge-1-lunar-mission-launch-before-2027","ref":0.0355,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":4032,"state":[-8683.78365,-139.472705],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791405051,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1509,"slug":"predict-fun-fdv-above-2b-one-day-after-launch","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/predict-fun-fdv-above-2b-one-day-after-launch","q":"Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["space"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.204,"ref":0.2015},{"name":"No","p":0.796,"ref":0.7985}],"chance":0.204,"change24":0,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/predictfun-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/predictfun-fdv-above-2b-one-day-after-launch","ref":0.2015,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":3117,"state":[-4954.893184,-711.162542],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791344202,"closes":1830315600,"closesText":"Jan 1, 12 AM ET · World Day 11,693","closesWorldDay":11693,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":707,"slug":"will-predict-fun-launch-a-token-by-december-31-2026","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/will-predict-fun-launch-a-token-by-december-31-2026","q":"Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["space"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.805,"ref":0.835},{"name":"No","p":0.195,"ref":0.165}],"chance":0.805,"change24":0,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-predictfun-launch-a-token-by","ref":0.835,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":2554,"state":[-553.995806,-4175.16611],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791262407,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}