{"id":153,"slug":"presidential-election-winner-2028-who-wins","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/presidential-election-winner-2028-who-wins","q":"Presidential Election Winner 2028: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"JD Vance","p":0.2227,"ref":0.2721},{"name":"Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez","p":0.1541,"ref":0.1792},{"name":"Jon Ossoff","p":0.1141,"ref":0.1418},{"name":"Marco Rubio","p":0.0978,"ref":0.1127},{"name":"Gavin Newsom","p":0.087,"ref":0.1093},{"name":"Kamala Harris","p":0.0497,"ref":0.059},{"name":"Josh Shapiro","p":0.033,"ref":0.0414},{"name":"Pete Buttigieg","p":0.0297,"ref":0.0373},{"name":"Andy Beshear","p":0.0189,"ref":0.0223},{"name":"Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson","p":0.0189,"ref":0.0238},{"name":"Other","p":0.1741,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.2227,"change24":0,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2028","ref":0.2721,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":10000,"state":[-15019.175687,-18704.517378,-21710.827846,-23244.438868,-24415.365531,-30011.52341,-34120.670539,-35156.077328,-39675.928566,-39675.928566,-17483.893725],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232885,"closes":1857272340,"closesText":"Nov 7, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 19,181","closesWorldDay":19181,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":"The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.","rules":"The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.\n\nThis market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.","resolutionSource":"Polymarket's own resolution (UMA's optimistic oracle): the outcome whose Polymarket market resolves Yes wins here; one not listed here counts as Other. If Polymarket voids it, everyone is refunded.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 4:41 PM ET · World Day 837","resolves":1857272340,"resolvesText":"Nov 7, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 19,181","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791232860,"p":[0.2227,0.1541,0.1141,0.0978,0.087,0.0497,0.033,0.0297,0.0189,0.0189,0.1741],"r":[0.2227,0.1541,0.1141,0.0978,0.087,0.0497,0.033,0.0297,0.0189,0.0189,0.1741]},{"at":1791234840,"p":[0.2227,0.1541,0.1141,0.0978,0.087,0.0497,0.033,0.0297,0.0189,0.0189,0.1741],"r":[0.2231,0.154,0.114,0.0978,0.087,0.0497,0.033,0.0297,0.0189,0.0189,0.174]},{"at":1791235020,"p":[0.2227,0.1541,0.1141,0.0978,0.087,0.0497,0.033,0.0297,0.0189,0.0189,0.1741],"r":[0.2248,0.1551,0.1149,0.0985,0.0876,0.0501,0.0332,0.0299,0.0191,0.0191,0.1677]},{"at":1791235260,"p":[0.2227,0.1541,0.1141,0.0978,0.087,0.0497,0.033,0.0297,0.0189,0.0189,0.1741],"r":[0.2231,0.154,0.114,0.0978,0.087,0.0497,0.033,0.0297,0.0189,0.0189,0.174]},{"at":1791236400,"p":[0.2227,0.1541,0.1141,0.0978,0.087,0.0497,0.033,0.0297,0.0189,0.0189,0.1741],"r":[0.2212,0.1612,0.113,0.0969,0.0862,0.0493,0.0327,0.0295,0.0187,0.0187,0.1725]},{"at":1791237900,"p":[0.2227,0.1541,0.1141,0.0978,0.087,0.0497,0.033,0.0297,0.0189,0.0189,0.1741],"r":[0.2231,0.1664,0.114,0.0978,0.087,0.0497,0.033,0.0297,0.0189,0.0189,0.1615]},{"at":1791238200,"p":[0.2227,0.1541,0.1141,0.0978,0.087,0.0497,0.033,0.0297,0.0189,0.0189,0.1741],"r":[0.2211,0.1649,0.113,0.0969,0.0862,0.0493,0.0327,0.0294,0.0187,0.0187,0.1692]},{"at":1791238500,"p":[0.2227,0.1541,0.1141,0.0978,0.087,0.0497,0.033,0.0297,0.0189,0.0189,0.1741],"r":[0.2658,0.1983,0.1359,0.1165,0.1036,0.0593,0.0393,0.0353,0.0225,0.0225,0.001]},{"at":1791239880,"p":[0.2227,0.1541,0.1141,0.0978,0.087,0.0497,0.033,0.0297,0.0189,0.0189,0.1741],"r":[0.2658,0.1983,0.1359,0.1165,0.1036,0.0593,0.0393,0.0353,0.0225,0.0225,0.001]},{"at":1791244140,"p":[0.2227,0.1541,0.1141,0.0978,0.087,0.0497,0.033,0.0297,0.0189,0.0189,0.1741],"r":[0.2658,0.1983,0.1359,0.1165,0.1036,0.0593,0.0393,0.0353,0.0225,0.0225,0.001]},{"at":1791251460,"p":[0.2227,0.1541,0.1141,0.0978,0.087,0.0497,0.033,0.0297,0.0189,0.0189,0.1741],"r":[0.2658,0.1983,0.1359,0.1165,0.1036,0.0593,0.0393,0.0353,0.0225,0.0225,0.001]},{"at":1791252660,"p":[0.2227,0.1541,0.1141,0.0978,0.087,0.0497,0.033,0.0297,0.0189,0.0189,0.1741],"r":[0.2658,0.1983,0.1359,0.1165,0.1036,0.0593,0.0393,0.0353,0.0225,0.0225,0.001]},{"at":1791255840,"p":[0.2227,0.1541,0.1141,0.0978,0.087,0.0497,0.033,0.0297,0.0189,0.0189,0.1741],"r":[0.2658,0.1983,0.1359,0.1165,0.1036,0.0593,0.0393,0.0353,0.0225,0.0225,0.001]},{"at":1791259440,"p":[0.2227,0.1541,0.1141,0.0978,0.087,0.0497,0.033,0.0297,0.0189,0.0189,0.1741],"r":[0.2281,0.1672,0.1146,0.0992,0.0883,0.0499,0.0334,0.0302,0.0175,0.0192,0.1524]},{"at":1791259740,"p":[0.2227,0.1541,0.1141,0.0978,0.087,0.0497,0.033,0.0297,0.0189,0.0189,0.1741],"r":[0.2281,0.1672,0.1146,0.0992,0.0883,0.0499,0.0334,0.0302,0.0175,0.0192,0.1524]},{"at":1791260100,"p":[0.2227,0.1541,0.1141,0.0978,0.087,0.0497,0.033,0.0297,0.0189,0.0189,0.1741],"r":[0.2688,0.1971,0.1351,0.1169,0.1041,0.0588,0.0394,0.0356,0.0206,0.0226,0.001]},{"at":1791264300,"p":[0.2227,0.1541,0.1141,0.0978,0.087,0.0497,0.033,0.0297,0.0189,0.0189,0.1741],"r":[0.2688,0.1971,0.1351,0.1169,0.1041,0.0588,0.0394,0.0356,0.0206,0.0226,0.001]},{"at":1791267060,"p":[0.2227,0.1541,0.1141,0.0978,0.087,0.0497,0.033,0.0297,0.0189,0.0189,0.1741],"r":[0.2688,0.1971,0.1351,0.1169,0.1041,0.0588,0.0394,0.0356,0.0206,0.0226,0.001]},{"at":1791267300,"p":[0.2227,0.1541,0.1141,0.0978,0.087,0.0497,0.033,0.0297,0.0189,0.0189,0.1741],"r":[0.2205,0.1636,0.1121,0.0971,0.0864,0.0488,0.0327,0.0295,0.0172,0.0188,0.1733]},{"at":1791267840,"p":[0.2227,0.1541,0.1141,0.0978,0.087,0.0497,0.033,0.0297,0.0189,0.0189,0.1741],"r":[0.2665,0.1977,0.1355,0.1173,0.1044,0.059,0.0395,0.0356,0.0208,0.0227,0.001]},{"at":1791271140,"p":[0.2227,0.1541,0.1141,0.0978,0.087,0.0497,0.033,0.0297,0.0189,0.0189,0.1741],"r":[0.2512,0.1864,0.1278,0.1106,0.0984,0.0556,0.0373,0.0336,0.0196,0.0214,0.0581]},{"at":1791272340,"p":[0.2227,0.1541,0.1141,0.0978,0.087,0.0497,0.033,0.0297,0.0189,0.0189,0.1741],"r":[0.2664,0.1977,0.1355,0.1173,0.1044,0.059,0.0396,0.0356,0.0208,0.0227,0.001]},{"at":1791276720,"p":[0.2227,0.1541,0.1141,0.0978,0.087,0.0497,0.033,0.0297,0.0189,0.0189,0.1741],"r":[0.2664,0.1977,0.1355,0.1173,0.1044,0.059,0.0396,0.0356,0.0208,0.0227,0.001]},{"at":1791286440,"p":[0.2227,0.1541,0.1141,0.0978,0.087,0.0497,0.033,0.0297,0.0189,0.0189,0.1741],"r":[0.2181,0.1647,0.1129,0.0967,0.0869,0.0491,0.0329,0.0297,0.0173,0.0189,0.1728]},{"at":1791288660,"p":[0.2227,0.1541,0.1141,0.0978,0.087,0.0497,0.033,0.0297,0.0189,0.0189,0.1741],"r":[0.2186,0.1646,0.1128,0.0966,0.0869,0.0491,0.0329,0.0297,0.0173,0.0189,0.1727]},{"at":1791288780,"p":[0.2227,0.1541,0.1141,0.0978,0.087,0.0497,0.033,0.0297,0.0189,0.0189,0.1741],"r":[0.2639,0.1988,0.1362,0.1166,0.1049,0.0593,0.0398,0.0358,0.0209,0.0228,0.001]},{"at":1791289740,"p":[0.2227,0.1541,0.1141,0.0978,0.087,0.0497,0.033,0.0297,0.0189,0.0189,0.1741],"r":[0.2271,0.1711,0.1172,0.1004,0.0903,0.051,0.0342,0.0308,0.0179,0.0196,0.1402]},{"at":1791290700,"p":[0.2227,0.1541,0.1141,0.0978,0.087,0.0497,0.033,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