{"id":1149,"slug":"next-israeli-minister-of-national-security","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/next-israeli-minister-of-national-security","q":"Next Israeli Minister of National Security?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":[],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Bezalel Smotrich","p":0.0977,"ref":0.004},{"name":"Yair Golan","p":0.0977,"ref":0.0048},{"name":"Eli Cohen","p":0.0977,"ref":0.0044},{"name":"Yoram Cohen","p":0.0977,"ref":0.1318},{"name":"Meirav Ben-Ari","p":0.0977,"ref":0.0132},{"name":"Ram Ben-Barak","p":0.0977,"ref":0.0022},{"name":"Hili Tropper (Yechiel Tropper)","p":0.0977,"ref":0.0048},{"name":"Talya Lankri","p":0.0966,"ref":0.1494},{"name":"No Next Minister by Feb 28","p":0.077,"ref":0.3383},{"name":"Yoav Segalovich","p":0.0322,"ref":0.0312},{"name":"Other","p":0.1103,"ref":0.3159}],"chance":0.0977,"change24":0,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-israeli-minister-of-national-security","ref":0.004,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":1735,"state":[-4035.335792,-4035.335792,-4035.335792,-4035.335792,-4035.335792,-4035.335792,-4035.335792,-4055.868576,-4448.194028,-5961.960897,-3824.19161],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791299922,"closes":1803877140,"closesText":"Feb 28, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 4,349","closesWorldDay":4349,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":"This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of National Security in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections.","rules":"This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of National Security in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections.\n\nTo count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of National Security will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution.\n\nThe individual must be appointed as “Minister of National Security” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor.\n\nIf the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of National Security are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf no such Minister of National Security assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","resolutionSource":"Polymarket's own resolution (UMA's optimistic oracle): the outcome whose Polymarket market resolves Yes wins here; one not listed here counts as Other. If Polymarket voids it, everyone is refunded.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 6, 11:18 AM ET · World Day 856","resolves":1803877140,"resolvesText":"Feb 28, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 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