{"id":534,"slug":"in-2028-will-ai-be-at-least-as-big-a-political-issue-as-abortion","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/in-2028-will-ai-be-at-least-as-big-a-political-issue-as-abortion","q":"In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai","us-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.9354,"ref":0.93},{"name":"No","p":0.0646,"ref":0.07}],"chance":0.9354,"change24":0,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-ai-be-at-least-as-big","ref":0.93,"refSrc":"Manifold","b":2845,"state":[-190.141452,-7791.8312],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791250166,"closes":1830412740,"closesText":"Jan 2, 2:59 AM ET · World Day 11,720","closesWorldDay":11720,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"I will resolve this based on some combination of how much it gets talked about in elections, how much money goes to interest groups on both topics, and how much of the \"political conversation\" seems to be about either.\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 9:29 PM ET · World Day 842","resolves":1830671940,"resolvesText":"Jan 5, 2:59 AM ET · World Day 11,792","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791250140,"p":[0.9354,0.0646],"r":[0.9354,0.0646]},{"at":1791264060,"p":[0.9354,0.0646],"r":[0.9354,0.0646]},{"at":1791274860,"p":[0.9354,0.0646],"r":[0.9354,0.0646]},{"at":1791285660,"p":[0.9354,0.0646],"r":[0.9354,0.0646]},{"at":1791296460,"p":[0.9354,0.0646],"r":[0.9354,0.0646]},{"at":1791307260,"p":[0.9354,0.0646],"r":[0.9354,0.0646]},{"at":1791318060,"p":[0.9354,0.0646],"r":[0.9354,0.0646]},{"at":1791328860,"p":[0.9354,0.0646],"r":[0.9354,0.0646]},{"at":1791339660,"p":[0.9354,0.0646],"r":[0.9354,0.0646]},{"at":1791350460,"p":[0.9354,0.0646],"r":[0.9354,0.0646]},{"at":1791361260,"p":[0.9354,0.0646],"r":[0.9354,0.0646]},{"at":1791372060,"p":[0.9354,0.0646],"r":[0.9354,0.0646]},{"at":1791382860,"p":[0.9354,0.0646],"r":[0.9354,0.0646]},{"at":1791393660,"p":[0.9354,0.0646],"r":[0.9354,0.0646]},{"at":1791404460,"p":[0.9354,0.0646],"r":[0.9357,0.0643]},{"at":1791415260,"p":[0.9354,0.0646],"r":[0.9357,0.0643]},{"at":1791425400,"p":[0.9354,0.0646],"r":[0.93,0.07]},{"at":1791436920,"p":[0.9354,0.0646],"r":[0.93,0.07]},{"at":1791447720,"p":[0.9354,0.0646],"r":[0.93,0.07]},{"at":1791473833,"p":[0.9354,0.0646],"r":[0.93,0.07]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":93.54,"bestBid":93,"bestAsk":94,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":94,"shares":226,"people":0,"house":226,"total":212.44},{"price":95,"shares":549,"people":0,"house":549,"total":733.99},{"price":96,"shares":665,"people":0,"house":665,"total":1372.39},{"price":97,"shares":848,"people":0,"house":848,"total":2194.95},{"price":98,"shares":1183,"people":0,"house":1183,"total":3354.29},{"price":99,"shares":2000,"people":0,"house":2000,"total":5334.29}],"bids":[{"price":93,"shares":243,"people":0,"house":243,"total":225.99},{"price":92,"shares":410,"people":0,"house":410,"total":603.19},{"price":91,"shares":366,"people":0,"house":366,"total":936.25},{"price":90,"shares":332,"people":0,"house":332,"total":1235.05},{"price":89,"shares":303,"people":0,"house":303,"total":1504.72},{"price":88,"shares":279,"people":0,"house":279,"total":1750.24}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":6.46,"bestBid":6,"bestAsk":7,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":7,"shares":243,"people":0,"house":243,"total":17.01},{"price":8,"shares":410,"people":0,"house":410,"total":49.81},{"price":9,"shares":366,"people":0,"house":366,"total":82.75},{"price":10,"shares":332,"people":0,"house":332,"total":115.95},{"price":11,"shares":303,"people":0,"house":303,"total":149.28},{"price":12,"shares":279,"people":0,"house":279,"total":182.76}],"bids":[{"price":6,"shares":226,"people":0,"house":226,"total":13.56},{"price":5,"shares":549,"people":0,"house":549,"total":41.01},{"price":4,"shares":665,"people":0,"house":665,"total":67.61},{"price":3,"shares":848,"people":0,"house":848,"total":93.05},{"price":2,"shares":1183,"people":0,"house":1183,"total":116.71},{"price":1,"shares":2000,"people":0,"house":2000,"total":136.71}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":72,"slug":"gemini-4-0-released-by-october-31-2026","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/gemini-4-0-released-by-october-31-2026","q":"Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.8373,"ref":0.905},{"name":"No","p":0.1627,"ref":0.095}],"chance":0.8373,"change24":-0.0348,"change7d":null,"vol":13675,"trades":319,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-4pt0-released-by-june-30-2026","ref":0.905,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":2754,"state":[13184.848342,8674.030857],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1793505540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,468","closesWorldDay":1468,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":49,"slug":"will-indiana-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-december-31-2028","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/will-indiana-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-december-31-2028","q":"Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.2235,"ref":0.195},{"name":"No","p":0.7765,"ref":0.805}],"chance":0.2235,"change24":0,"change7d":null,"vol":1572,"trades":31,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/indiana-enacts-data-center-moratorium-by-20260929","ref":0.195,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":3495,"state":[-3664.92027,688.494934],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1861937940,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 20,477","closesWorldDay":20477,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":257,"slug":"which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-october","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-october","q":"Which company has the best AI model end of October?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Google","p":0.6529,"ref":0.7031},{"name":"Anthropic","p":0.3191,"ref":0.2782},{"name":"OpenAI","p":0.0128,"ref":0.0111},{"name":"Meta","p":0.0059,"ref":0.0066},{"name":"Other","p":0.0093,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.6529,"change24":0,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-october","ref":0.7031,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":5530,"state":[-2357.434548,-6316.703625,-24117.086936,-28392.827018,-25851.613237],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791236005,"closes":1793462400,"closesText":"Oct 31, 12 PM ET · World Day 1,456","closesWorldDay":1456,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1905,"slug":"will-indiana-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-june-30-2027","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/will-indiana-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-june-30-2027","q":"Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.085,"ref":0.085},{"name":"No","p":0.915,"ref":0.915}],"chance":0.085,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/indiana-enacts-data-center-moratorium-by-20260929/will-indiana-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-june-30-2027","ref":0.085,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":3067,"state":[-7560.474037,-272.445332],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791400251,"closes":1814414340,"closesText":"Jun 30, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 7,276","closesWorldDay":7276,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1654,"slug":"openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-who-wins","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-who-wins","q":"OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: who wins?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai","openai"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"1.5T+","p":0.608,"ref":0.5846},{"name":"No IPO by December 31, 2027","p":0.2102,"ref":0.2334},{"name":"1.25T, 1.5T","p":0.0681,"ref":0.0785},{"name":"1T, 1.25T","p":0.0362,"ref":0.0333},{"name":"750B, 1T","p":0.0278,"ref":0.026},{"name":"<500B","p":0.0267,"ref":0.0255},{"name":"500-750B","p":0.0189,"ref":0.0177},{"name":"Other","p":0.0042,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.608,"change24":0,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-554","ref":0.5846,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":4310,"state":[-2144.809298,-6722.95102,-11577.851291,-14307.925737,-15444.966625,-15610.756295,-17111.958147,-23594.531728],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791359330,"closes":1830315540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 11,693","closesWorldDay":11693,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":91,"slug":"gemini-4-0-released-by-october-15-2026","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/gemini-4-0-released-by-october-15-2026","q":"Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.68,"ref":0.8},{"name":"No","p":0.32,"ref":0.2}],"chance":0.68,"change24":0,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-4pt0-released-by-june-30-2026","ref":0.8,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":2404,"state":[-927.132604,-2739.200017],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1792123140,"closesText":"Oct 15, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,084","closesWorldDay":1084,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}