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I will resolve this based on my impression of the consensus of economists at that time. By \"visible break\", I mean clearly larger than ordinary year-to-year variation, and widely remarked upon. \n\nUpdate 2025-19-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications:\n\nA direct effect of AI refers to economic changes directly caused by AI itself, and does not include effects resulting from phenomena like an AI industry bubble bursting.\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). 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Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}