{"id":836,"slug":"by-2027-will-adam-be-replaced-by-a-novel-optimization-algorithm","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/by-2027-will-adam-be-replaced-by-a-novel-optimization-algorithm","q":"By 2027 will Adam be replaced by a novel optimization algorithm?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.4237,"ref":0.3515},{"name":"No","p":0.5763,"ref":0.6485}],"chance":0.4237,"change24":0,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/vluzko/by-2027-will-adam-be-replaced-by-a","ref":0.3515,"refSrc":"Manifold","b":1033,"state":[-887.02616,-569.344649],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791273221,"closes":1798790400,"closesText":"Jan 1, 3 AM ET · World Day 2,936","closesWorldDay":2936,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"I am including both Adam and close variants (e.g. AdamW).\n\nTo judge it I will look at the top 20 most cited ML papers released that year. If >= 50% of them use a novel optimization algorithm, market resolves YES.\n\nIf Adam is replaced by an existing optimization algorithm, or it remains the most common optimization algorithm, market resolves NO.\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 6, 3:53 AM ET · World Day 848","resolves":1799049600,"resolvesText":"Jan 4, 3 AM ET · World Day 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4.0 released by October 31, 2026?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.8512,"ref":0.945},{"name":"No","p":0.1488,"ref":0.055}],"chance":0.8512,"change24":-0.0003,"change7d":null,"vol":11519,"trades":275,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-4pt0-released-by-june-30-2026","ref":0.945,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":2754,"state":[11074.848342,6271.030857],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1793505540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,468","closesWorldDay":1468,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1905,"slug":"will-indiana-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-june-30-2027","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/will-indiana-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-june-30-2027","q":"Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & 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3,029","closesWorldDay":3029,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}