{"id":1894,"slug":"brazil-presidential-election-second-round-1st-place-abroad-who-wins","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/brazil-presidential-election-second-round-1st-place-abroad-who-wins","q":"Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Lula","p":0.6332,"ref":0.6169},{"name":"Flavio Bolsonaro","p":0.3668,"ref":0.3831}],"chance":0.6332,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-second-round-1st-place-abroad","ref":0.6169,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":1716,"state":[-784.251327,-1720.882678],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791398211,"closes":1792987140,"closesText":"Oct 25, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,324","closesWorldDay":1324,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":"The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026.","rules":"The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from voters abroad, meaning votes cast outside Brazil and reported by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under “Exterior”.\n\nCandidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won abroad. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).","resolutionSource":"Polymarket's own resolution (UMA's optimistic oracle): the outcome whose Polymarket market resolves Yes wins here; one not listed here counts as Other. If Polymarket voids it, everyone is refunded.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 7, 2:36 PM ET · World Day 883","resolves":1792987140,"resolvesText":"Oct 25, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,324","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791398160,"p":[0.6332,0.3668],"r":[0.6332,0.3668]},{"at":1791408420,"p":[0.6332,0.3668],"r":[0.6089,0.3911]},{"at":1791422520,"p":[0.6332,0.3668],"r":[0.6089,0.3911]},{"at":1791423480,"p":[0.6332,0.3668],"r":[0.6151,0.3849]},{"at":1791436920,"p":[0.6332,0.3668],"r":[0.6188,0.3812]},{"at":1791447720,"p":[0.6332,0.3668],"r":[0.6169,0.3831]},{"at":1791473857,"p":[0.6332,0.3668],"r":[0.6169,0.3831]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Lula","o":0,"mid":63.32,"bestBid":63,"bestAsk":64,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":64,"shares":51,"people":0,"house":51,"total":32.64},{"price":65,"shares":75,"people":0,"house":75,"total":81.39},{"price":66,"shares":76,"people":0,"house":76,"total":131.55},{"price":67,"shares":77,"people":0,"house":77,"total":183.14},{"price":68,"shares":78,"people":0,"house":78,"total":236.18},{"price":69,"shares":79,"people":0,"house":79,"total":290.69}],"bids":[{"price":63,"shares":23,"people":0,"house":23,"total":14.49},{"price":62,"shares":74,"people":0,"house":74,"total":60.37},{"price":61,"shares":72,"people":0,"house":72,"total":104.29},{"price":60,"shares":72,"people":0,"house":72,"total":147.49},{"price":59,"shares":71,"people":0,"house":71,"total":189.38},{"price":58,"shares":71,"people":0,"house":71,"total":230.56}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Flavio 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2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0876,"ref":0.0305},{"name":"No","p":0.9124,"ref":0.9695}],"chance":0.0876,"change24":-0.011,"change7d":null,"vol":7748,"trades":256,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/putin-out-before-2027","ref":0.0305,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":6055,"state":[-8217.346856,5969.378115],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":182,"slug":"minnesota-senate-election-winner-who-wins","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/minnesota-senate-election-winner-who-wins","q":"Minnesota Senate Election Winner: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Peggy Flanagan (D)","p":0.778,"ref":0.855},{"name":"Michele Tafoya (R)","p":0.222,"ref":0.145}],"chance":0.778,"change24":-0.0135,"change7d":null,"vol":10158,"trades":249,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/minnesota-senate-election-winner","ref":0.855,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":2937,"state":[9383.059307,5699.71477],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791233605,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}