{"id":1523,"slug":"alexandre-de-moraes-out-as-brazil-supreme-court-justice","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/alexandre-de-moraes-out-as-brazil-supreme-court-justice","q":"Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.165,"ref":0.095},{"name":"No","p":0.835,"ref":0.905}],"chance":0.165,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/alexandre-de-moraes-out-as-brazil-supreme-court-justice","ref":0.095,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":2669,"state":[-4809.03037,-481.283566],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791345402,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","resolutionSource":"Polymarket's own resolution (UMA's optimistic oracle). If Polymarket voids or cancels it, everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 6, 11:56 PM ET · World Day 868","resolves":1798779540,"resolvesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791345360,"p":[0.165,0.835],"r":[0.165,0.835]},{"at":1791345420,"p":[0.165,0.835],"r":[0.17,0.83]},{"at":1791357660,"p":[0.165,0.835],"r":[0.17,0.83]},{"at":1791366960,"p":[0.165,0.835],"r":[0.165,0.835]},{"at":1791379260,"p":[0.165,0.835],"r":[0.165,0.835]},{"at":1791390060,"p":[0.165,0.835],"r":[0.165,0.835]},{"at":1791400860,"p":[0.165,0.835],"r":[0.165,0.835]},{"at":1791401820,"p":[0.165,0.835],"r":[0.095,0.905]},{"at":1791409113,"p":[0.165,0.835],"r":[0.095,0.905]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":16.5,"bestBid":16,"bestAsk":17,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":17,"shares":96,"people":0,"house":96,"total":16.32},{"price":18,"shares":185,"people":0,"house":185,"total":49.62},{"price":19,"shares":177,"people":0,"house":177,"total":83.25},{"price":20,"shares":170,"people":0,"house":170,"total":117.25},{"price":21,"shares":164,"people":0,"house":164,"total":151.69},{"price":22,"shares":158,"people":0,"house":158,"total":186.45}],"bids":[{"price":16,"shares":98,"people":0,"house":98,"total":15.68},{"price":15,"shares":204,"people":0,"house":204,"total":46.28},{"price":14,"shares":215,"people":0,"house":215,"total":76.38},{"price":13,"shares":229,"people":0,"house":229,"total":106.15},{"price":12,"shares":244,"people":0,"house":244,"total":135.43},{"price":11,"shares":262,"people":0,"house":262,"total":164.25}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":83.5,"bestBid":83,"bestAsk":84,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":84,"shares":98,"people":0,"house":98,"total":82.32},{"price":85,"shares":204,"people":0,"house":204,"total":255.72},{"price":86,"shares":215,"people":0,"house":215,"total":440.62},{"price":87,"shares":229,"people":0,"house":229,"total":639.85},{"price":88,"shares":244,"people":0,"house":244,"total":854.57},{"price":89,"shares":262,"people":0,"house":262,"total":1087.75}],"bids":[{"price":83,"shares":96,"people":0,"house":96,"total":79.68},{"price":82,"shares":185,"people":0,"house":185,"total":231.38},{"price":81,"shares":177,"people":0,"house":177,"total":374.75},{"price":80,"shares":170,"people":0,"house":170,"total":510.75},{"price":79,"shares":164,"people":0,"house":164,"total":640.31},{"price":78,"shares":158,"people":0,"house":158,"total":763.55}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":114,"slug":"which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","q":"Which party will win the House in 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Democratic Party","p":0.8357,"ref":0.915},{"name":"Republican Party","p":0.1643,"ref":0.085}],"chance":0.8357,"change24":-0.0077,"change7d":null,"vol":6890,"trades":161,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","ref":0.915,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":5709,"state":[5864.91756,-3422.835248],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232165,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1312,"slug":"florida-senate-election-winner-who-wins","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/florida-senate-election-winner-who-wins","q":"Florida Senate Election Winner: who 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2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1663,"ref":0.095},{"name":"No","p":0.8337,"ref":0.905}],"chance":0.1663,"change24":-0.0261,"change7d":null,"vol":7853,"trades":178,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-15-2026","ref":0.095,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":4035,"state":[614.453379,7118.200831],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1792123140,"closesText":"Oct 15, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,084","closesWorldDay":1084,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":19,"slug":"will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-2027","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-2027","q":"Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1298,"ref":0.055},{"name":"No","p":0.8702,"ref":0.945}],"chance":0.1298,"change24":0.0059,"change7d":null,"vol":5111,"trades":154,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026","ref":0.055,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":6143,"state":[-8108.292922,3579.488331],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":182,"slug":"minnesota-senate-election-winner-who-wins","url":"https://clankland.io/predict/minnesota-senate-election-winner-who-wins","q":"Minnesota Senate Election Winner: who 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wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Marine Le Pen","p":0.5353,"ref":0.4464},{"name":"Édouard Philippe","p":0.1417,"ref":0.1806},{"name":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","p":0.1051,"ref":0.129},{"name":"David Lisnard","p":0.0958,"ref":0.129},{"name":"François Hollande","p":0.0429,"ref":0.0356},{"name":"Gabriel Attal","p":0.0162,"ref":0.0314},{"name":"Raphaël Glucksmann","p":0.0109,"ref":0.0129},{"name":"Bruno Retailleau","p":0.0094,"ref":0.0139},{"name":"Sarah Knafo","p":0.0079,"ref":0.0114},{"name":"Éric Zemmour","p":0.0072,"ref":0.0088},{"name":"Other","p":0.0275,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.5353,"change24":0.0471,"change7d":null,"vol":2359,"trades":63,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election","ref":0.4464,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":9051.25,"state":[-3297.149748,-15327.470131,-18028.941078,-18873.800833,-26137.454633,-34955.501664,-38520.82783,-39864.214401,-41442.330497,-42348.210901,-30165.043194],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232405,"closes":1808107140,"closesText":"Apr 18, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 5,524","closesWorldDay":5524,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}